Voros McCracken offers a provocative and counter-intuitive argument:
There is little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play.
In other words, a pitcher may use skill to prevent batters from putting the ball in play, but once it is in play, he is entirely at the mercy of defense and luck. Good pitchers and bad pitchers are on equal footing once the ball is struck (unless it is struck foul or over the fence).
Rob Neyer suggests that this might explain Greg Maddux' 1999 "slump":
In 1998, Greg Maddux allowed a .262 batting average on balls in play, one of the lowest in baseball. In 1999, Maddux allowed a .324 batting on balls in play, one of the highest. Did Maddux go from being one of baseball's best pitchers to being one of baseball's worst in the space of one year? Of course he didn't. Did Atlanta's defense go from outstanding to poor in the space of one year? It probably didn't.
In fact, if you remember back to 1999, Maddux often said that his high-for-him ERA (3.57) was simply the result of hits dropping. He was making good pitches (he claimed), but they just weren't going to the right places in the field. And this fits well with what McCracken found…
In a follow-up to his first column, Neyer offers some fascinating critiques of McCracken's argument sent to him by some big shots in the field of sabermetrics (baseball research).From Craig Wright :
I think pitchers are successful or not for a variety of reasons, and some reasons apply more to one group than another. Some have additional emphasis on control; some emphasize strikeouts; some groundballs, and yes, some emphasize pitches that are tough to hit sharply enough to get your share of hits on balls in play. I don't think the latter is a primary way for pitchers to distinguish themselves from others, but I do believe it is a more significant factor for some groups than others.
At a time like this, curiously, you begin to think of the things you regret, or the things you might miss. I would like in general to treat people with much more care and respect. I would like to climb a tall hill, but not too tall, sit in the cool grass, but not too cool, and feel the sun on my face. I wish I could have cracked the Lindbergh kidnapping case. I would very much like to make love to a beautiful woman who I had a genuine affection for. And of course it goes without saying that I would like to visit Tibet. I wish that the Tibetan government would allow the Dalai Lama to return to his native land. Oh, I would like that very much.
—FBI Special Agent Dale Cooper. [More…]
Ongoing discussion on our music listserv: what is the best string of four consecutive albums ever released by a single artist? Live albums and compilations may be disregarded. I nominated The Kinks (1965-68): The Kink Kontroversy, Face to Face, Something Else, and The Village Green Preservation Society. Other nominations I found compelling: